Future of Banking and Financial Services

Euro crisis and Revolution - risks to your business, family and wider wo...

2011-11-15T06:40:00.000-08:00

Euro collapse, government debt defaults, risks in Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland. Risks to Eurozone, action by European Central Bank (ECB). Risk to Europe and government instability, protests, riots, civil disorder, fall of government, tension between nations, revolution, war. European Union was created out of the ashes of two World Wars with a big aim to help ensure peace. Video keynote conference presentation by Futurist Patrick Dixon

2011-11-11T05:59:00.000-08:00

How mobile payments will impact future of banks, banking, back end payment processing, credit card transactions and retail customer spending. Smartphones using encryption and biometrics will enable telecom companies to compete with banks and credit card companies for retail payment transactions. Expect wireless payments using smartphones to grow rapidly. Despite this, some customers will continue to prefer cash because it allows anonymous purchases and is convenient for smaller purchases. Mobile payments could generate commissions of up to EU2 billion a year in countries like France, Germany, Italy and the UK. What would happen if -- say -- Vodafone formed a partnership with Google, Nokia and American Express? Implications for financial services, small loans, large ticket purchases of white goods, cars and other big items. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Patrick Dixon speaking at retail trends conference for Hermes clients. Future of banking and financial services.

Five seconds to win a customer. Moments of Truth: Future Trends in Retai...

2011-11-09T11:01:00.000-08:00

Why every second counts in retail - and how companies lose customers faster than they realise. Vital trends for the future of retailing from Futurist keynote speaker Patrick Dixon. Marketing and selling to customers should be fast, easy, convenient and satisfying. Keep your customers happy, listen to them, keep close to how they are really thinking about your products and services. In a time-poor world, customers are increasingly fed up with companies that waste time, make them wait, keep them on hold, make them stand in line. Premium customers expect instant service, rapid help, total commitment, expert advice and 100% delivery on your promises.

How to win customers! Better Call-Centres, What is CRM? Customer service...

2011-11-09T09:47:00.000-08:00

Future marketing, brands and campaigns -- keynote speaker and Futurist Patrick Dixon. Future trends in the retail industry, presentation for UK clients of Hermes. Targetting customers in a world which is overloaded with marketing messages. What is CRM - customer relationship management. How to run call centres to win sales, improve customer satisfaction and engagement, customer loyalty, retention and reduce numbers of complaints. How many corporations are blind to unmet customer needs, lacking true insight into how customers actually feel about how they are being treated. Most executives hate robot automated answering systems when they are customers themselves, yet are happy to alienate their own customers by forcing them to use exactly the same technologies. Why the tone of voice on the end of the phone is one of your most important brand elements, for companies who never physically meet their customers - or rarely do so.

Global Economc Crisis 2007-15 - looking back from year 2100

2011-11-05T05:52:00.000-07:00

When historians look back in 100 years time -- what will they make of the sub-prime crisis and all that followed? What links will they make between the rise of China as a mega-industrial nation, buying huge amounts of dollars, keeping their own currency low, and costs of borrowing low for developed nations. Of course we are talking about a wider issue than China, but China is a dominant force in this regard. The fact is that China's willingness to buy dollars and euros in the 2000s provided a very welcome boost for developed nations -- providing a lot of money at low interest rates. Both governments and individuals took advantage of this to spend on things they thought were important at the time -- running up huge debts, and driving these economies into a long boom, creating local jobs, improving infrastructure, health care and education. Video comment by conference keynote speaker Patrick Dixon

From Villain to Hero: Improve Corporate Image, Social Media Profile, Pow...

2011-07-19T09:29:00.000-07:00

Managing Huge Risks: Economy, Future of Euro, Leadership Strategy, Risk ...

2011-07-19T03:27:00.001-07:00

Managing Huge Risks: Economy, Future of Euro, Leadership Strategy, Risk ...

2011-07-19T03:27:00.000-07:00

Euro break up - future eurozone? Debt crisis, banks, economy

2011-05-11T09:38:00.000-07:00

Future of Euro and eurozone nations. Future impact on banking, banks, sovereign debt. Government insolvency, economic stimulus programs. How Euro crisis will unfold. Impact on jobs, deflation, inflation, imports, exports, manufacturing and other industry trends. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and demand for government bonds. Cutting government borrowing to meet market demand, analyst action. Impact on unemployment, social unrest, political change and national stability. Economic forecasts with devaluation following ejection from euro. Future of Ireland. Spain, Portugal, Italy, Germany, France and UK. Interest rate policy of European Central Bank (ECB). Pension fund investment and fund management. Comment by conference keynote speaker and Futurist Patrick Dixon.

Future of Banking - Safe Strategy for Banks

2011-05-11T07:34:00.000-07:00

Future of Banking - click on the link for presentations, videos, articles on the future of banking, retail banks, corporate banking, wholesale banking, investment banking etc.

"I have worked with many of the world's largest banks over the last 15 years. One of the greatest challenges facing every multinational bank is TRUST - or rather restoring trust. And one of the greatest risks is collective BLINDNESS. Failure to see banking needs through the eyes of customers; dangerous assumptions that past trends can predict future; failure to look beyond the typical banking view of global trends. BENCHMARKING is a lazy way to lead (and possibly destroy) a bank: "We follow industry best practice", "We take an average industry-wide position on this issue". As we have seen, it is possible to sleep-walk with the rest of an industry into great danger, comforted by the large number of other banking leaders who have adopted similar strategies. Banks need clear vision, moral strength, prudent and agile leadership, flexible strategy, and customer focus." Patrick Dixon, Chairman Global Change Ltd and author of Futurewise.

Topics covered on my http://www.globalchange.com website include: future of retail banking, corporate banking trends, investment banking and fund management, online banking, mobile banking, risk management in banking, wholesale banking. The future of local, national and global banks. Non-banking competitors including retail stores, insurers, technology companies and mobile phone companies. Future of banking regulation and compliance issues - why compliance is not enough to retain trust and protect brands, and so on.

My banking clients over the last 15 years include ABN AMRO, ABSA bank, AIG, Allianz, AMA, Asset Management Advisors, Aviva, Bank of Ireland, Barclays Bank, Birla financial services group, BNP Paribas, Britania Building Society, Clariden Bank, Credit Suisse Group, Credit Suise First Boston, CUES, Deutsche Bank, Fortis, Friends First Bank, HSBC, International Mutual Funds Institute, Kazakstan Investment Forum. LLoyds TSB, Lombard, Macquarie Bank, Minsheng Bank, Morgan Stanley Investment Bank, Morley Fund, Munich Re, North Island Credit Union, PrivatBank (Ukraine), Prudential, RBS, RMB, SEB, Skandia, Sumitomo Bank, Swiss Re, Swiss Stock Exchange, UBS, Bank Vontobel, Winterthur Insurance and Zurich Financial Services.

Future of Travel Industry Google Travel and Tourism Conference Keynote ...

2011-02-26T06:05:00.000-08:00

Future of the Euro crisis in Greece, Ireland and other nations. Challenges ahead.

2010-05-07T04:24:00.000-07:00

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Euro crisis in Greece. Monetary union constraints in high inflation or deflation. Role of European Central Bank in balancing needs of high growth and low growth economies. Contrasts between Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Germany, France, Italy and countries which more recently joined. Loss of sovereignty to Brussels. Political issues in controlling budget deficits or imposing budget cuts on an unwilling nation. Political unrest and threat of strikes or instability. Challenges for the future. Comment by Futurist conference keynote speaker and author Patrick Dixon at London Stock Exchange UK Trade and Investment - Nordic Business Awards. European Union trends.

Future of Fund Management: banks, pensions, trust, banking crisis and investment performance

2010-05-07T04:19:00.000-07:00

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Future of Fund Management - presentation for Mercer by Dr Patrick Dixon. Pension funds, institutional investors, commissions and charges, fund management compliance and regulation. Future retail funds and client trends. High net worth clients and managing investment risks. Investor and investment activity.

Click here for more

Oil prices and aviation industry trends

2008-04-23T11:58:00.000-07:00

Future of aviation industry with higher oil prices. Operational efficiency and budget airlines, capacity, turnaround time, cost reduction, seat occupancy, load factor increase, fuel efficiency with new planes. Future of airline travel for business, leisure and tourism. Transport competition from road and rail. Total fuel element of travel cost small. Discounted air fares. Aviation industry profitability, crisis, mergers and acquisitions. Long haul flights and short haul flights. Carbon offset travel carbon dioxide emissions -- airlines. Air freight carbon offset for DHL, UPS and Fedex. Average cost per passenger seat. Dollar price of oil. Future oil price trends. Impact of higher oil prices on aviation. Use of biofuel and alternative fuels. Business class tickets, image and public relations. Alternatives to commercial travel for meetings.Video by keynote conference speaker Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist and author of 12 books on global trends including Futurewise and Building a Better Business.

Geothermal heating -- heat pumps and global warming

2008-04-22T11:55:00.000-07:00

Geothermal heat pumps to heat or cool homes. Impact on global warming replacing gas boilers, oil boilers and air conditioning systems. Same technology as fridge in home. Heat homes, tower blocks, factories, commercial buildings, real estate developments, schools, hospitals and government buildings. Energy savings. Heat exchange. Sweden heat pumps, Switzerland geothermal heating, New Zealand heat pumps. Growth of geothermal installation companies. Payback period. Annual savings. Undergound pipes. Power supply, electricity peak demand. Seasonal changes in demand. Science of geothermal heating systems. How geothermal heating works. How geothermal cooling works. Innovation in global warming reduction -- cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Size of geothermal market in Europe, America, Australia and Asia. Video by keynote conference speaker Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist and author of 12 books on global trends including Futurewise and Building a Better Business. Heat pumps, geothermal, energy saving, carbon trading, caps, emissions, carbon dioxide, offset, offsetting, fraud, accounting, heat saving, global warming, science, heating, cooling, air conditioning

Carbon offset trading fraud -- huge criminal activity

2008-04-21T11:54:00.000-07:00

Carbon offsets and carbon offsetting fraud. Lack of carbon market regulation, verification and independent audit of carbon saving schemes. Need to prove genuine carbon reduction, proof of additionality. Government exaggeration of carbon use, false carbon credits. Kyoto compliance and global warming action, reducing emissions of carbon dioxide. Carbon capture, carbon sequestration, underground storage of carbon dioxide. Double counting. Subsidies and grants for no added value. False accounting for emissions and carbon saving. Inconsistend measures and public standards. Global carbon trading and caps on carbon emissions. Carbon swops between industries, corporations and governments. International standards for carbon trading. Profits from carbon markets and CO2 trades. Emission reduction and energy savings. Video by keynote conference speaker Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist and author of 12 books on global trends including Futurewise and Building a Better Business. Carbon trading, caps, emissions, carbon dioxide, offset, offsetting, fraud, accounting, regulation, market, trade, marketing, capure, sequestration, storage, energy savings, government, global warming
Carbon trading, caps, emissions, carbon dioxide, offset, offsetting, fraud, accounting, regulation, market, trade, marketing, capure, sequestration, storage, energy savings, government, global warming

Spying at Work -- espionage, who, how, why, how to stop it

2008-04-20T11:51:00.000-07:00

Spying at work, industrial espionage, how data is stolen, data leakage, discovery before patent protection, intellectual capital theft, client data losses, blackmail of banks after penetration of data security systems, databases and confidential information. Why attacks are common. Methods used to attack corporations. Why greatest security risks are your own employees: own staff leaving or leaking information while still in your corporation. Bugging devices detection, remote listening devices. Big Brother is watching you. MI5, CIA, KGB have powers to intercept phone calls, e-mail, video, fax and data transmissions to prevent crime, terrorism and subversive activity, and similar technology can be used to target legitimate business. Data protection and confidentiality. Steps business leaders need to take to improve own security and manage risk. Rule Number 1 is be aware that greatest risks are usually internal. Video by keynote conference speaker Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist and author of 12 books on global trends including Futurewise and Building a Better Business.
Security, data loss, intellectual capital, patents, theft, industrial espionage, threat, risk, corporations, databases,, intercept, listening devices, bugging detection, spying corporations, protection information

Sovereign wealth funds - what China will do next?

2008-04-19T10:40:00.001-07:00

Sovereign wealth funds hold several trillion dollars. What will they do? Most was in long term Federal Bonds. Expect sovereign wealth fund managers to diversify into banking, technology, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, mining and oil industry as well as real estate if prices fall further. Selling dollars on large scale is unlikely since it would lower dollar value and value of their remaining dollar investments. Video by conference keynote Futurist speaker Dr Patrick Dixon, author Futurewise. Sovereign wealth, funds, management, dollar, US economy, outlook, fall, rise, investments, portfolio, economic trends, emerging markets, patrick dixon

UK joining Euro -- less likely after sub-prime crisis

2008-04-13T11:40:00.001-07:00

Impact of subprime crisis on Euro entry date by Britain. Interest rate control Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England. Sovereignty and national autonomy to manage economy. Tigthening and loosening of monetary policy in response to inflation of commodities, retail price index and house market indicators. Eurozone control of economic policy. Government freedom in times of financial crisis and uncertainty, managing risk. Predictions of date of Eurozone entry and Eurozone expansion. Video by keynote conference speaker Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist and author of 12 books on global trends. Euro, sterling, currency, inflation, central bank, bank, England, interest, rates, control, economy, growth, recession, economic.

Can you see the future? Institutional Blindness

2008-03-27T05:04:00.001-07:00

Future trends analysis. Risk management. Institutional blindness in corporations and business strategy. Innovation and business opportunity needs out of the box thinking. Future trends methods. Methodology or system for global trends analysis. Research into future. How to understand trends. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Limits to economic growth? Sustainability? Conference speaker

2008-03-22T04:13:00.000-07:00

1 billion new consumers. Can economic growth continue indefinitely? What is the limit to resources? Limits on carbon, oil, gas, coal reservers. Potential impact of nuclear fusion technology. Commodities: aluminium, copper, steel, precious metals, water, farming land and food supplies, gold. Real challenges for future generations. Many problems are solveable if we can produce unlimited clean energy at relatively low cost with new technologies. Why meat production is so wasteful of resources. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

How should global business reduce global poverty and ...

2008-03-21T04:11:00.000-07:00

Example of social impact of AIDS foundation ACET. But business generates economic growth which can also have huge impact on poverty in poorest nations. Value of assets such as property grows. International trade benefit to emerging economies. Skills transfer and skills training. Positive impact of outsourcing in global well-being. Every job lost in America or Europe creates many new jobs directly and indirectly in Asia or Africa. Some of the wealth comes back to developed nations in demand for products and services. Globalisation can bring problems but also many benefits. But non-profit organisations and foundations also have vital role. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Life insurance and life expectancy -- conference speaker

2008-03-20T04:09:00.000-07:00

Life expectancy and life insurance, pensions. High net worth clients live longer -- better educated. Impact of future health care improvements. Actuarial forecasts, government planning. Government and social impact, pensions crisis and risk management. Science and research trends into longevity. Patrick Dixon, conference keynote speaker and futurist.

Managing speed of change - risk management - leadership

2008-03-18T05:02:00.000-07:00

Speed of change. Change management. Leadership styles and decisions. Web marketing. Online sales. Impatient consumers and consumer choices. Rapid innovation. Business profit. Agility in teams. Contingencies. Managing uncertainty and risk management. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Risk management - wild cards - high impact, unlikely events

2008-03-16T05:00:00.000-07:00

High impact unlikely events. Impact on future business strategy. Leadership and change management. Managing uncertainty and rapid change. Insuring risk and risk management in business. Contingency planning. Leadership styles and decisions. Web marketing. Online sales. Impatient consumers and consumer choices. Rapid innovation. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Demographic impact on your business and world

2008-03-15T04:57:00.000-07:00

1 billion children will be new consumers. Demographic explosion in India and ageing population in China , Europe and Japan. Huge market growth. Beijing shortage of children. Young workforce in India so competitive advantage. Future trends. Social, political and economic challenge. War for talent challenge. 25 year impact. Urban migration. Urbanisation of India, China and Africa. Rural movement to cities. Megacities in Asia. Infrastucture challenges, water, roads, sanitation, transport, roads, rail, energy and power stations. Shortage of commodities -- copper, steel, coal, gas, oil. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Commodity shortages, prices and emerging market growth

2008-03-14T04:55:00.000-07:00

Shortages and commodity price rises -- oil, copper, gas, coal, steel, precious metals. National interests and sovereign wealth funds. Securing supply chains for economic growth and infrastructure development. China and India demand for commodities. World market prices and forecasts for future demand. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Sovereign funds - national tensions - future trends?

2008-03-13T04:55:00.000-07:00

China, Russia, UAE and other nations buying national assets. Sovereign wealth funds size and growth. Investment policy, transparency, reaction and regulation. National interest and conflict. Controversy. Link to private equity and buyouts. Rescue of banks and financial institutions. Future fund manager decisions and government policies to hold dollar or euro reserves. Switch from dollars to euros. Oil revenues boost sovereign fund wealth. American foreign policy interests. Foreign ownership of utilities, ports, airports, stock exchanges and other national assets. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Outsourcing - EU, US, India, China and Central Europe

2008-03-12T04:48:00.000-07:00

Impact of low cost workers arriving in places like UK, France, Germany, Italy driving down labour charges and altering costs of manufacturing and services in Western Europe. Impact on economics of outsourcing and offshoring. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.Huge salary inflation impact for senior executives in India and China make outsourcing economics harder. Up to 100% wage inflation in China and 40% in india for experienced business leaders. Reverse outsoursing. Business efficiency and strategy needs review. Operating costs of managing outsourced operations. Why outsourcing operations can fail.

Staying Young - anti ageing research

2008-03-11T04:47:00.000-07:00

Science of ageing. How to stop getting old. Medical research into physiology of ageing. How cells get old. Tissue regeneration of heart, muscle, retina, spine, brain and other organs. Repair of tissue damage. Organ regeneration. Cure for blood pressure? New facelift therapy? Humpback whales, Rockfish Project and slow ageing in turtles and parrots. Human impact of anti-aging therapy. Social impact of living longer. Impact on longevity forecasts for life insurance and pensions risk. Cure for deafness and cure for macular degeneration. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Power of Tribes - Clash of Cultures - Consumer Groups

2008-03-10T04:45:00.000-07:00

Clash of cultures, religious tribes, brands create tribes, every corporation is many tribes. Tribal inequality of wealth risks global instability, protest movements and new terrorist groups. Tribes give music, language, poetry, literature, teams, friends, neighbourhood, family, teams, communities and nations. Most businesses are tribes of tribes. Niche markets and tribalism. Tribal leadership -- leading thousands of people, motivation, inspired workers, higher productivity, people movements. Clients and customer segmentation. Political tribes, campaigns and protest groups, activists. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon

Microloans, microfinance, microcredit, banking and insurance

2008-03-09T04:44:00.000-07:00

Women's self-help groups. Microloans and microfinance schemes. Financial security. India new bank and financial institutions. Vietnam, China, Cambodia, Thailand, Africa, Asia, Latin America, Mexico. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Insurance market in India, China and rest Asia

2008-03-08T04:41:00.000-08:00

Why insurance market set to grow rapidly in India, China and rest of Asia. Rising middle class. Insurance as saving product, move to insurance for pure risk cover, life insurance, health insurance, annuities, endowments, mortgage and loan insurance, general insurance, motor insurance, accident insurance. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Global brands, mergers and demergers future

2008-03-07T04:40:00.000-08:00

Globalisation, mega-mergers and acquisitions. Pressure to show how business units build synergy and shareholder value, or pressure by shareholders and analysts to break up global corporations. Future of large organisations. De-mergers, sell-offs, going private, superbrands. avoiding institutional shareholders. Mega brands and local culture. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Why ships will dominate global trade

2008-03-06T04:39:00.000-08:00

Ships and shipping, ports and globalisation. International trade and logistics. Just in time. Manufacturing supply chain management and distribution. Lorry, road, rail. Air freight and container ships. Container terminals and stock control management. Industry, emerging markets and developed world. Global trends. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Better and Different - convergence, divergence, ...

2008-03-06T04:38:00.000-08:00

Better and different -- convergence and divergence
http://www.globalchange.com Divergence or convergence? Consumer focus, IT systems, software and mobile phones. Multiple devices and systems. Multiple capabilities and features. Innovation, divergence, new products and services. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Mobile phones and banks, banking transactions future trends

2008-03-05T04:37:00.000-08:00

Banks will become phone companies and telecom companies will become banks. Mobile payment systems, micropayments, mobile phone credit card transactions and loans. Economic impact of remittances from foreign workers using SMS credit to avoid foreign exchange transaction costs. How biometrics fingerprint technology will allow large mobile phone payments. Commissions and interest charges on loans. Impact of revenues from American Express, Visa, Delta, Access, Mastercard moving to mobile phone transactions. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Too late for outsourcing?

2008-03-04T04:34:00.000-08:00

Huge salary inflation impact for senior executives in India and China make outsourcing economics harder. Up to 100% wage inflation in China and 40% in india for experienced business leaders. Reverse outsoursing. Business efficiency and strategy needs review. Operating costs of managing outsourced operations. Why outsourcing operations can fail. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Global warming and sustainability - carbon and energy

2008-03-03T04:33:00.000-08:00

Impact of global warming. Facts about global warming science. Controversy and arguments against global warming. Rising sea levels. Sustainability, environment, climate change, sea levels, carbon dioxide levels. Business and corporate responsibility. Reducing carbon footprint. Carbon offsetting and carbon sequestration capture technology for energy industry. Cleaner power generation and energy saving. Solar power, wind power, wave power, geothermal power. Impact on manufacturing, chemical industry, banking, transport, travel, tourism. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Intellectual copyright: many businesses will give ideas away

2008-03-02T04:24:00.000-08:00

Future of futurists bright because future trends soon become the past. Giving away intellectual capital. Wikipedia and YouTube world. Intellectual property only has power when released and used by others. Future is about giving away knowledge and ideas. Future of universities and research institutions, future of music and music industry. How to understand future trends. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Economic growth former Soviet Bloc / CIS nations

2008-03-01T04:20:00.000-08:00

Huge catchup in big cities with massive infrastructure projects. Huge economic opportunities in former soviet bloc countries outside the largest cities in regional development. Huge economic growth in places like Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan. Expect the same in places like Belarus. Business growth and multinational investment. Foreign direct investment. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Water wars - global warming and water shortages - crisis

2008-02-27T04:17:00.000-08:00

Huge water shortages in future with climate change. Water wars. Global warming, drought and changing patterns of rainfall. Rivers and reservoirs drying up. Water use restrictions. Political action and infrastructure investment. Impact of water shortage on business and farming / agriculture. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Sub-prime crisis - what next in banking?

2007-11-13T13:18:00.001-08:00

Video comment on what next in the current banking crisis following sub-prime mortgage crisis in US - why regulators and boards do not understand what is happening. Video by Dr Patrick Dixon

UK house prices? Future of housing market?

2007-07-01T15:16:00.001-07:00

What will happen next to house prices in London? Factors which are underpinning real estate investment across the UK. Video comment by Dr Patrick Dixon

Future of Retail Banking - Video

2007-06-22T11:38:00.001-07:00

Threat to banks from mobile phone payment systems using SMS, RFID and other technologies including biometrics (fingerprint). How mobile / wireless technologies will transform retail financial services, purchases especially for relatively low value transactions. Video interrupted by security guard on instructions from his boss.... clearly making even a short YouTube video is itself a potential threat! Maybe they are right. YouTube comments spread at the speed of light. Comment by Dr Patrick Dixon, futurist, leading authority on global trends and conference speaker.

Fund Management Risks - Potential Crisis - Patrick Dixon

2007-05-31T13:23:00.001-07:00

Many fund managers do not recommend their own retail funds to family and would not chose to invest their own wealth in their own funds. Future scandal? Presentation by Dr Patrick Dixon video

Wild cards - low probability, high impact events

2007-05-27T13:26:00.001-07:00

Impact of multiple risk factors on financial services and other industries. Wild cards affect markets, investment strategies and client behaviour. Video excert from recent presentation for MTN.

Future insurance - switching to online sales

2006-07-03T13:41:00.001-07:00

Spoke with the leader of one of the largest insurance companies in Singapore this evening who is convinced that he can sell a huge amount of insurance online in his country within the next 5 years. He will be following people like insure.com.

• Online one stop shop

• 842,000 websites already offering “online insurance quotes” in English speaking nations alone

• “Skip the medical exams, skip the long forms, skip the mail delays. Here's where you can buy 10, 15 or 20 year level term life insurance online right here and now. It doesn't get any easier or faster than this”

• In-house specialist advisers available by phone

• Two unique guarantees:

• View the lowest term life premiums in America or receive $500

• Every quote is guaranteed accurate or receive $500 cash reward program.

New ethical investment initiative - growing trend - expect more of these soon

2006-06-26T08:42:00.000-07:00

Financial institutions managing $2 trillion in assets have launched The Principles of Ethical Investment, designed in partnership with the UN. 32 pension funds, foundations and government funds have joined the scheme.

The six principles include environmental, social and corporate governance, becoming more active investors, seeking greater transparency, pooling resources and reporting on progress.

While it is easy to criticise such principles as vague the important thing is to recognise the trend which is sharply moving towards ethical concerns, and is being driven by investors who are making it clear that they expect the highest ethical standards without compromising financial returns.

Meanwhile the amount invested in so-called ethical funds has leapt from $200m in 1989 to over $5bn by 2006.

For more on Building a Better Business – see:

http://www.globalchange.com/buildingabetterbusiness.htm

International money transfers are still a nightmare

2006-06-21T13:05:00.000-07:00

I cannot believe that sending money out to other countries is still such a pain. It takes ages, often payments are returned after a week or two for trivial reasons that should have been picked up at the start of the process, the charges are huge.

It is totally ridiculous that in this global age it is so complex to make a simple payment.

And I am not just talking about Western nation to emerging economy.

Electronic payments are particularly difficult even between say the US and the UK.

The whole thing needs to be sorted out urgently.

Major banking losses from phishing scams

2006-06-20T14:13:00.000-07:00

I heard from a very authoritative source the other day that one bank in the EU is losing around EU1.5 million every day from e-mail phishing scams.

Banks are still not taking enough steps to deal with the problem.

It would not be difficult to ask a large number of banking customers to forward immediately to a central monitoring agency any suspicious messages they get. As soon as the first 5-10 duplicate spam messages are found the agency can respond by an immediate bombardment of the illegal site in a denial of service attack, shutting it down temporarily while other measures are taken to destroy the site.

But it has to be fast: a phishing scam can make many thousands of dollars in the first 10 minutes after an e-mail campaign begins.

Inflation rate - why do Central Bankers focus on such a low rate?

2006-06-11T09:07:00.000-07:00

I was speaking to an audience of central bankers from over 25 countries last week for BNP Paribas in Nice...

For the last few years many countries have been chasing an inflation rate of around 2-3% which is almost zero compared to some of the highest rates we have seen in the past. There is a new generation growing up that have no memory of significant inflation who could be forgiven for wondering what the obsession with low inflation is all about.

In any event it is hard to find an absolute logic for such a 2-3% level. The real issue of course is stability, and the risk of a rate that hovers around 2% or less is that there will be some kind of deflationary shock with all the damaging consequences we have seen in Japan.

Most central bankers focus on inflationary shocks – for example a further hike in oil prices. But you do not need much imagination to see that things could go the other way.

An obvious example would be an outbreak of a bird flu derived virus that appears to be spreading fast with an uncertain mortality rate. While such an epidemic could turn out to be far less serious than the most optimistic forecasts for a bird flu mutation, most bankers I have talked to recently would consider that the impact could affect investor confidence as well as public behaviour.

My own straw polls of executive audiences around the world suggest that few human deaths would be needed from the first 50,000 cases of a rapidly spreading mutated bird flu to cause up to 25% or more of the entire workforce to stay at home “just to be on the safe side”, especially those worried about taking their children to school.

While no one can be sure what the economic impact would be of a more serious pandemic, it would be wise to consider the possibility that many prices could fall by more than 2-4%, and that a country that is “stabilised” around an inflation rate of only 2% could therefore be at risk of deflation in such a situation.

Future generations may feel that the current targets were too low, and the anti-inflationary policies were unnecessarily severe.

London continues growth as banking centre

2006-04-30T01:42:00.000-07:00

Walking around the streets of central London last Saturday night we were as always delighted to feel the buzz of this vibrant city which now has few rivals on earth.

London continues to be a magnet for capital and high talent in banking, drawn by excellent jobs, the community of world class financial leaders, an English speaking economy, and a relatively deregulated operating environment. But many are also drawn by the life of the city itself.

Expect London to grow in size by another half million over the next decade, despite moves of many out to surrounding countryside and smaller towns.

Banking fraud still a problem - amongst own team of staff

2006-04-29T09:51:00.000-07:00

Someone told me the other day that they knew of a number of cases where a staff member in the IT department committed a major fraud, was detected, and then spirited out of the bank with a glowing reference to help them get another job with a competitor. Reason: too embarrassing to risk a public prosecution which would reveal the lax measures used by the bank to keep money and confidential client information secure.

Future of private banking

2006-04-28T00:31:00.000-07:00

I was recently with a group of ultra high net worth clients of a major bank, and spoke to them about their future after having had dinner with them the night before.

A question raised as a result of similar conversations with a number of them:

What is the wealth for? Private banking exists to preserve wealth and is successful. Many clients become wealthier each year – and cannot possibly in their lifetime find enough ways to burn through that wealth faster than it is created. Much of what they spend is actually saved – for example buying another property or a work of art, both of which appreciate in value.

They are often concerned that wealth will wreck their children – so these assets are not being developed for them. The same applies to the grandchildren.

So if the wealth is not for the parents, nor their children, nor their grandchildren – what purpose does it actually have?

The answer for many is to make a difference.

That is why the vast majority of ultra-wealthy have charitable foundations of their own.

Private bankers need to understand this: their role in future should also cover philanthropic advice – or at least they should be able to offer it as part of the relationship. This area is a deeply personal one and presents many questions. If a client wishes to give to a cause, how do they find one that is reliable, cost-effective and so on.

Watch out for many new organisations that are springing up to help fill this need.

Future of Banking and Financial Services

2006-04-27T12:42:00.000-07:00

New blog looking at issues in banking and financial services.