Future of the Euro crisis in Greece, Ireland and other nations. Challenges ahead.

Euro crisis in Greece. Monetary union constraints in high inflation or deflation. Role of European Central Bank in balancing needs of high growth and low growth economies. Contrasts between Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Germany, France, Italy and countries which more recently joined. Loss of sovereignty to Brussels. Political issues in controlling budget deficits or imposing budget cuts on an unwilling nation. Political unrest and threat of strikes or instability. Challenges for the future. Comment by Futurist conference keynote speaker and author Patrick Dixon at London Stock Exchange UK Trade and Investment - Nordic Business Awards. European Union trends.

Oil prices and aviation industry trends

Future of aviation industry with higher oil prices. Operational efficiency and budget airlines, capacity, turnaround time, cost reduction, seat occupancy, load factor increase, fuel efficiency with new planes. Future of airline travel for business, leisure and tourism. Transport competition from road and rail. Total fuel element of travel cost small. Discounted air fares. Aviation industry profitability, crisis, mergers and acquisitions. Long haul flights and short haul flights. Carbon offset travel carbon dioxide emissions -- airlines. Air freight carbon offset for DHL, UPS and Fedex. Average cost per passenger seat. Dollar price of oil. Future oil price trends. Impact of higher oil prices on aviation. Use of biofuel and alternative fuels. Business class tickets, image and public relations. Alternatives to commercial travel for meetings.Video by keynote conference speaker Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist and author of 12 books on global trends including Futurewise and Building a Better Business.

Sovereign wealth funds - what China will do next?

Sovereign wealth funds hold several trillion dollars. What will they do? Most was in long term Federal Bonds. Expect sovereign wealth fund managers to diversify into banking, technology, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, mining and oil industry as well as real estate if prices fall further. Selling dollars on large scale is unlikely since it would lower dollar value and value of their remaining dollar investments. Video by conference keynote Futurist speaker Dr Patrick Dixon, author Futurewise. Sovereign wealth, funds, management, dollar, US economy, outlook, fall, rise, investments, portfolio, economic trends, emerging markets, patrick dixon

UK joining Euro -- less likely after sub-prime crisis

Impact of subprime crisis on Euro entry date by Britain. Interest rate control Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England. Sovereignty and national autonomy to manage economy. Tigthening and loosening of monetary policy in response to inflation of commodities, retail price index and house market indicators. Eurozone control of economic policy. Government freedom in times of financial crisis and uncertainty, managing risk. Predictions of date of Eurozone entry and Eurozone expansion. Video by keynote conference speaker Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist and author of 12 books on global trends. Euro, sterling, currency, inflation, central bank, bank, England, interest, rates, control, economy, growth, recession, economic.

Commodity shortages, prices and emerging market growth

Shortages and commodity price rises -- oil, copper, gas, coal, steel, precious metals. National interests and sovereign wealth funds. Securing supply chains for economic growth and infrastructure development. China and India demand for commodities. World market prices and forecasts for future demand. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Too late for outsourcing?

Huge salary inflation impact for senior executives in India and China make outsourcing economics harder. Up to 100% wage inflation in China and 40% in india for experienced business leaders. Reverse outsoursing. Business efficiency and strategy needs review. Operating costs of managing outsourced operations. Why outsourcing operations can fail. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

UK house prices? Future of housing market?

What will happen next to house prices in London? Factors which are underpinning real estate investment across the UK. Video comment by Dr Patrick Dixon

Inflation rate - why do Central Bankers focus on such a low rate?

I was speaking to an audience of central bankers from over 25 countries last week for BNP Paribas in Nice...

 

For the last few years many countries have been chasing an inflation rate of around 2-3% which is almost zero compared to some of the highest rates we have seen in the past.  There is a new generation growing up that have no memory of significant inflation who could be forgiven for wondering what the obsession with low inflation is all about. 

 

In any event it is hard to find an absolute logic for such a 2-3% level.  The real issue of course is stability, and the risk of a rate that hovers around 2% or less is that there will be some kind of deflationary shock with all the damaging consequences we have seen in Japan.

 

Most central bankers focus on inflationary shocks – for example a further hike in oil prices.  But you do not need much imagination to see that things could go the other way. 

 

An obvious example would be an outbreak of a bird flu derived virus that appears to be spreading fast with an uncertain mortality rate.  While such an epidemic could turn out to be far less serious than the most optimistic forecasts for a bird flu mutation, most bankers I have talked to recently would consider that the impact could affect investor confidence as well as public behaviour.

 

My own straw polls of executive audiences around the world suggest that few human deaths would be needed from the first 50,000 cases of a rapidly spreading mutated bird flu to cause up to 25% or more of the entire workforce to stay at home “just to be on the safe side”, especially those worried about taking their children to school.

 

While no one can be sure what the economic impact would be of a more serious pandemic, it would be wise to consider the possibility that many prices could fall by more than 2-4%, and that a country that is “stabilised” around an inflation rate of only 2% could therefore be at risk of deflation in such a situation.

 

Future generations may feel that the current targets were too low, and the anti-inflationary policies were unnecessarily severe.